- ETLA Economic Research forecasts that Finland’s GDP will contract by 0.2% in 2024 and grow by 1.4% in 2025.
- The Bank of Finland forecasts that the Finnish economy will contract by 0.5% in 2024 and grow by 1.1% in 2025.
- Pellervo economic research PTT forecasts that the Finnish economy will contract by 0.4% in 2024 and grow by 1.1% in 2025.
- Handelsbanken forecasts that the Finnish economy will contract by 0.2% in 2024 and grow by 1.5% in 2025.
- The Labour Institute for Economic Research LABORE forecasts that the Finnish economy will contract by 0.2% in 2024 and grow by 1.7% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026.
- More forecasts by banks, research institutes and authorities are available on Finance Finland’s website in a summary of the latest forecasts for the Finnish economy.
According to the latest economic forecasts, the contraction of the Finnish economy will be slower in 2024 than in the previous year, and the economy will take a slight upward turn in 2025. This is indicated by economic forecasts published after 10 September 2024.
The most pessimistic of the mid-September forecasts for 2024 is by the Bank of Finland, which predicts Finland’s GDP to contract by 0.5%. The most optimistic are Handelsbanken, Etla and Labore, forecasting a contraction of 0.2%. Pellervo economic research PTT’s forecast falls between these figures. The largest growth for 2025 is expected by Labore, whose forecast stands at 1.7%.
Etla also predicts that the Finnish economy will fare the worst in the euro area in 2024.
“The forecasts show that Finland’s economy is moving out of recession. That being said, there is little cause for celebration as the growth will remain at around 1–2% over the coming years. Finland’s ageing population and poor productivity growth leave little room for more growth than that – the engine of the economy simply has no more capacity left”, says Finance Finland’s Director, Chief Economist Veli-Matti Mattila.
“Finland is in a hurry to find a new formula for growth to be able to maintain the welfare society at its current level. One tool in this is the financial sector’s growth strategy, which is currently being prepared at the Ministry of Finance. The financial sector can be one of the driving forces of Finland’s economic growth if only given the chance. But this requires that we look after the sector’s own competitiveness and operating conditions”, says Mattila.
Finance Finland maintains a summary of the latest forecasts for the Finnish economy on its website. The summary includes forecasts by Finnish banks, authorities and research institutes as well as forecasts by the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund. The summary is updated about four times a year.
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